Mestrado em Sistemas Integrados de Apoio à Decisão / Business Intelligence (2ªEd-ISCTE-07/08)

quinta-feira, 22 de novembro de 2007

Variáveis e Regras “Fuzzy”

Quando nos deparamos com um problema, cujas soluções possíveis não se possam traduzir por um conjunto que assuma valores bem definidos (“crisp”), mas antes, por valores vagos (“fuzzy”) cuja solução apenas garante um determinado grau de pertença aos elementos desse conjunto, a utilização da lógica difusa (“fuzzy logic”) permite lidar com estas incertezas.

No projecto em desenvolvimento na cadeira de GPDW, existe a necessidade de obter um conjunto de indicadores que reflictam a eficiência da actividade clínica do Health Care Hospital. Estes indicadores deverão corresponder a métricas utilizadas na área hospitalar, que pela sua natureza, aferem comportamentos de boas práticas e uma boa rentabilização dos recursos disponíveis, como por exemplo, o facto de no período do dia entre as 13 e as 20 Horas, diminuírem drasticamente o número de consultas realizadas.

Retirámos alguns exemplos de indicadores de gestão, em que se observa a existência de um comportamento difuso.


Individualmente, estes indicadores são quantificáveis de uma forma inequívoca, mas uma vez agrupados de forma a reflectirem um determinado grau de eficiência (grande ou pequena eficiência) nas actividades hospitalares correspondentes, ficamos perante um problema de indefinição de valores. Numa escala de 0% a 100%, como iremos classificar estes indicadores quanto à sua eficiência? Bom, cada um terá o seu valor “crisp” em função dos dados, da métrica de cálculo e da dimensão temporal em análise. E relativamente à dimensão eficiência?

Recorrendo à “Lógica Difusa”, e tentando não pormenorizar em demasia o âmbito deste indicadores, poderemos definir intervalos percentuais de eficiência adequados às características de cada um, onde nitidamente teríamos zonas em que as percentagens corresponderiam a “grande eficiência” e “pequena eficiência”, mas haveria entre estas, outras zonas percentuais intermédias (zonas difusas), que poderiam corresponder a “não tão grande eficiência” e “não tão pequena eficiência”.

Desta forma, seria possível classificar correctamente cada indicador, quanto ao seu grau de pertença ou de pertinência em relação ao conjunto “difuso” correspondente, conforme se pode observar no exemplo abaixo.
por:
Fernanda Romão, João Guerreiro e Paulo Batista

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